What PolyWeather is, and isn't.

PolyWeather is a research desk for prediction-market weather. It scans temperature and weather markets on prediction-market platforms, pulls multi-model weather forecasts, and runs trading strategies to estimate a fair-value probability for each market. When publication is active, differences between its estimates and market prices may be presented as research ideas. The methods remain under validation.

It is an information and analysis tool. It does not place trades, hold funds, or manage anyone's money.

Current recommendations and subscriber research updates are unavailable. Historical paper results can be reviewed on the public scorecard; they are not real account performance.

No. PolyWeather is research and information only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or trading advice, and nothing on the site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position. You are responsible for your own decisions. See the risk disclosure.

Yes. Prediction-market positions can and do lose, including a total loss of the amount staked. An estimated edge is a probability judgment, not a promise; individual picks resolve against the desk regularly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

For each candidate market the desk fetches multi-model weather forecasts (and, for same-day US markets, live station observations), aggregates them into a temperature estimate with an uncertainty band, and runs pluggable strategies to compute a probability the market resolves YES or NO. That modelled probability is compared to the market's implied price; a meaningful, risk-checked difference can inform a research idea when publication is active. Historical measurements do not by themselves establish predictive accuracy or trading profitability.

Fair value is the desk's modelled probability for the market, expressed as a price. Edge is the gap between that fair value and the market's current price — the modelled mispricing, before fees. Kelly sizing is a model-derived risk metric based on the edge and odds; it is not a recommendation of how much to stake. All three are estimates and can be wrong.

Each market resolves against a specific data source named in its rules (a weather station and provider). When the underlying outcome is known, the market settles YES or NO and the desk records the result as ground truth for its scorecard. Settlement can be delayed, and the settlement source — not the desk's forecast — is what decides the outcome.

Forecasts are uncertain and revise; a model can be confidently wrong. Same-day heat, precipitation, and station-specific microclimate can swing an outcome late. Market data and settlement sources may be stale, delayed, disputed, or unavailable. Liquidity can be thin and prices can move against you. None of these are fully predictable.

No. PolyWeather does not place orders, execute trades, or custody funds for anyone. It is a research surface only. Any action you take on a third-party platform is yours, under that platform's terms.

Start from the subscribe page. Subscriber identity is tied to your PolyWeather account. Paid subscriptions are processed through secure checkout, and access is granted only when your account has an active subscription or manual entitlement.

Paid subscriptions renew automatically at the cadence shown at checkout. You can cancel renewal through the billing portal or by contacting support@polyweather.app. Cancellation stops future renewals but does not automatically refund the current billing period.

For your first subscription payment, you may cancel and request a refund within 14 days of purchase. Renewals and partial billing periods after that first-payment refund window are generally non-refundable. See the refund policy for the full terms.