What PolyWeather is, and isn't.

PolyWeather is a research desk for prediction-market weather. It scans temperature and weather markets on prediction-market platforms, pulls multi-model weather forecasts, and runs trading strategies to estimate a fair-value probability for each market. Where its estimate differs from the market's price, it surfaces that as a ranked research idea — with the reasoning attached.

It is an information and analysis tool. It does not place trades, hold funds, or manage anyone's money.

The public scorecard shows the desk's settled track record and a single day's headline. Subscribers (via a Clerk account) see the full live read: the day's pick when there is a live opportunity, the rest of the book, the estimated fair value, the edge versus the market price, a suggested Kelly sizing fraction, the written reasoning, and the entry window — forward-looking only, with no paywalled archive.

No. PolyWeather is research and information only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or trading advice, and nothing on the site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position. You are responsible for your own decisions. See the risk disclosure.

Yes. Prediction-market positions can and do lose, including a total loss of the amount staked. An estimated edge is a probability judgment, not a promise; individual picks resolve against the desk regularly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

For each candidate market the desk fetches multi-model weather forecasts (and, for same-day US markets, live station observations), aggregates them into a temperature estimate with an uncertainty band, and runs pluggable strategies to compute a probability the market resolves YES or NO. That modelled probability is compared to the market's implied price; a meaningful, risk-checked difference becomes a ranked idea. Every signal is recorded for backtesting.

Fair value is the desk's modelled probability for the market, expressed as a price. Edge is the gap between that fair value and the market's current price — the modelled mispricing, before fees. Kelly sizing is a fraction-of-bankroll suggestion derived from the edge and odds; it is a risk-management heuristic, not a recommendation of how much to stake. All three are estimates and can be wrong.

Each market resolves against a specific data source named in its rules (a weather station and provider). When the underlying outcome is known, the market settles YES or NO and the desk records the result as ground truth for its scorecard. Settlement can be delayed, and the settlement source — not the desk's forecast — is what decides the outcome.

Forecasts are uncertain and revise; a model can be confidently wrong. Same-day heat, precipitation, and station-specific microclimate can swing an outcome late. Market data and settlement sources may be stale, delayed, disputed, or unavailable. Liquidity can be thin and prices can move against you. None of these are fully predictable.

No. PolyWeather does not place orders, execute trades, or custody funds for anyone. It is a research surface only. Any action you take on a third-party platform is yours, under that platform's terms.

Create an account from the subscribe page (sign up via Clerk). During the private launch the desk approves accounts by hand — creating an account requests access, it does not grant it automatically, and there is no payment step yet. Once approved, sign in to reach the subscriber pages.