Public scorecard · settled record

How the desk actually did.

Resolved paper-portfolio picks, published after settlement and delayed by at least 24 hours so they can't be copy-traded. Live picks and open positions do not appear here.

The record

Settlement hit rate

50.3%

74 of 147 settled trades

Managed return

−2.639

total from $1 on each position · settlements + paper exits

Realized positions

409

157 settled · 252 paper exits

Hit rate counts official settlements only, so early paper exits never inflate it; managed return and position count include those risk-managed exits. Published after the embargo — past results don't guarantee future outcomes; research only, not financial advice.

What counts here

Hit rate uses official settlements only — early paper exits never count toward it. Managed return and the realized-position count do include those executable paper exits. Proxy, archive, and legacy rows stay broken out below, never blended into the headline.

Settlement rules

Headline metrics include only trades whose market is in the resolver-aligned primary cohort (aligned + source_kind in {resolver_truth, manual_verified} + source_status in {parsed, manual_verified}). Trades sourced from station proxies, reanalysis archives, mixed/unknown legacy, or markets without any temperature_actuals coverage are listed in `diagnostic_cohorts` and `trades` with their truth_mode labelled — never blended into the headline. Paper exits are shadow-portfolio risk management events, not official YES/NO settlements, so they are excluded from the settlement headline and settlement accuracy metrics (they appear only in the separate managed record).

Full breakdown

Every return below is for one dollar staked on each position, so the figures stay comparable no matter the size.

Realized positions

409

157 settled · 252 paper exits

Realized return

−2.639

−0.006 average per position

From settlements

−44.215

official YES/NO settlements

From paper exits

+41.575

early risk-managed exits

Managed record combines official YES/NO settlements with executable paper exits — early risk-management exits taken at the market's executable price before settlement. Returns are flat-stake: the cumulative result of staking $1 on each realized position, so no position sizing is revealed. Paper exits are not market settlements and never count toward the settlement hit rate. Settlement returns follow the same embargo as the headline; paper exits appear once recorded, as aggregate counts and return only — no per-position rows.

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 157

Each row's badge names how it settled: Verified = the market's official resolution source (the only rows that count in the headline); Provisional = settled another way, or not yet confirmed. Hover a badge for the exact method.

Jul 27São PauloVerified
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.609
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.623
High temp
77.0°Fweather_underground
Jul 27LondonVerified
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.710
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.394
High temp
80.6°Fweather_underground
Jul 27AnkaraVerified
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.542
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.823
High temp
75.2°Fweather_underground
Jul 27Tel AvivProvisional
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.750
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.321
High temp
—
Jul 27ParisVerified
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.620
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.594
High temp
78.8°Fweather_underground
Jul 27ParisVerified
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.630
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.569
High temp
78.8°Fweather_underground
Jul 26ChongqingVerified
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.790
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.010
High temp
105.8°Fweather_underground
Jul 26SeoulVerified
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.680
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.455
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Jul 26SingaporeVerified
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.620
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.019
High temp
86.0°Fweather_underground
Jul 26WellingtonVerified
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?
Direction
NO @ 0.790
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.255
High temp
50.0°Fweather_underground
Jul 26LondonVerified
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 25?
Direction
NO @ 0.657
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.017
High temp
84.2°Fweather_underground
Jul 26LondonVerified
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?
Direction
NO @ 0.600
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.647
High temp
84.2°Fweather_underground

Show all 157 resolved trades →

Jul 26MunichVerified
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 25?
Direction
NO @ 0.687
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.440
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Jul 26WarsawVerified
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 25?
Direction
NO @ 0.720
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.014
High temp
75.2°Fweather_underground

Other settlement sources

These rows are shown for transparency but are not counted in the headline record. They use settlement sources such as nearby stations, weather archives, legacy data, or rows that are not fully labelled yet.

Resolver Truth2 trades
Hit
0.0%
Avg / $1
−1.019
Cumulative
−2.038
Uncovered8 trades
Hit
75.0%
Avg / $1
−0.014
Cumulative
−0.114

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The record

Settlement hit rate

50.3%

74 of 147 settled trades

Managed return

−2.639

total from $1 on each position · settlements + paper exits

Realized positions

409

157 settled · 252 paper exits

Full breakdown

Every return below is for one dollar staked on each position, so the figures stay comparable no matter the size.

Realized positions

409

157 settled · 252 paper exits

Realized return

−2.639

−0.006 average per position

From settlements

−44.215

official YES/NO settlements

From paper exits

+41.575

early risk-managed exits

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 157

Jul 27São PauloVerified

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.609
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.623
High temp: 77.0°Fweather_underground

Jul 27LondonVerified

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.710
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.394
High temp: 80.6°Fweather_underground

Jul 27AnkaraVerified

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.542
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.823
High temp: 75.2°Fweather_underground

Jul 27Tel AvivProvisional

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.750
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.321
High temp: —

Jul 27ParisVerified

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.620
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.594
High temp: 78.8°Fweather_underground

Jul 27ParisVerified

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.630
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.569
High temp: 78.8°Fweather_underground

Jul 26ChongqingVerified

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.790
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.010
High temp: 105.8°Fweather_underground

Jul 26SeoulVerified

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.680
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.455
High temp: 87.8°Fweather_underground

Jul 26SingaporeVerified

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.620
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.019
High temp: 86.0°Fweather_underground

Jul 26WellingtonVerified

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?

Direction: NO @ 0.790
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.255
High temp: 50.0°Fweather_underground

Jul 26LondonVerified

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 25?

Direction: NO @ 0.657
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.017
High temp: 84.2°Fweather_underground

Jul 26LondonVerified

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?

Direction: NO @ 0.600
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.647
High temp: 84.2°Fweather_underground

Show all 157 resolved trades →

Jul 26MunichVerified
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 25?
Direction
NO @ 0.687
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.440
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Jul 26WarsawVerified
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 25?
Direction
NO @ 0.720
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.014
High temp
75.2°Fweather_underground

Other settlement sources

Resolver Truth2 trades

Hit

0.0%

Avg / $1

−1.019

Cumulative

−2.038

Uncovered8 trades

Hit

75.0%

Avg / $1

−0.014

Cumulative

−0.114

The record

Full breakdown

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 157

Other settlement sources

Subscriber tier

The record

Full breakdown

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 157

Other settlement sources

Subscriber tier