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PolyWeather

Public scorecard · settled record

How the desk actually did.

Resolved paper-portfolio picks, published after settlement and delayed by at least 24 hours so they can't be copy-traded. Live picks and open positions do not appear here.

Headline record

Resolved trades

31

24 wins

Hit rate

77.4%

direction matched settlement

Average return / $1

+0.113

average per $1 stake, after fees

Total return / $1 each

+3.491

sum using an equal $1 stake per trade

Past settled results are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Research only — not financial advice.

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 39

Badges name each row's settlement source: primary = the market's official source; resolver · proxy · reanalysis · verified = alternate settlement reads; legacy · uncovered = older or not-yet-labelled rows. Only primary rows count in the headline.

Jun 12Dallasprimary
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11?
Direction
NO @ 0.776
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.277
High temp
93.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 12Chicagoprimary

Other settlement sources

These rows are shown for transparency but are not counted in the headline record. They use settlement sources such as nearby stations, weather archives, legacy data, or rows that are not fully labelled yet.

Resolver Truth8 trades
Hit
25.0%
Avg / $1
−0.625
Cumulative
−5.002

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Jun 11Seattleprimary
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.770
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.012
High temp
66.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Atlantaprimary
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.790
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.255
High temp
88.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Dallasresolver
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.630
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.018
High temp
93.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Ankaraprimary
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.690
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.434
High temp
70.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Madridprimary
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.780
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.011
High temp
90.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Shanghairesolver
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.539
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.023
High temp
82.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Wuhanprimary
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.800
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.240
High temp
86.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Seattleresolver
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.680
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.016
High temp
63.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Dallasprimary
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.790
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.255
High temp
92.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Dallasprimary
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.550
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.022
High temp
92.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Dallasprimary
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.770
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.287
High temp
92.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Munichprimary
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.846
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.175
High temp
64.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Munichresolver
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.684
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.446
High temp
64.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Londonresolver
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.590
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.673
High temp
66.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Londonprimary
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.765
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.296
High temp
66.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 9Wuhanprimary
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.700
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.413
High temp
86.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 9New Yorkprimary
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 8?
Direction
NO @ 0.530
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.024
High temp
74.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 9Parisprimary
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8?
Direction
NO @ 0.740
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.338
High temp
72.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 9Londonprimary
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8?
Direction
NO @ 0.620
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.594
High temp
61.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 8Beijingprimary
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8?
Direction
NO @ 0.880
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.130
High temp
84.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 8Seattleresolver
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.520
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.024
High temp
65.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 8Torontoprimary
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.669
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.477
High temp
75.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 8Buenos Airesprimary
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.620
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.019
High temp
61.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 7Chongqingprimary
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.520
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.024
High temp
79.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 7Mexico Cityprimary
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 6?
Direction
NO @ 0.520
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.899
High temp
72.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 6Tokyoprimary
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6?
Direction
NO @ 0.503
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.964
High temp
72.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 6Chongqingprimary
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6?
Direction
NO @ 0.599
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.649
High temp
93.0°Fweather_underground