Public scorecard · settled record

How the desk actually did.

Resolved paper-portfolio picks, published after settlement and delayed by at least 24 hours so they can't be copy-traded. Live picks and open positions do not appear here.

The record

Settlement hit rate

43.5%

158 of 363 settled · covers 39% of 929 realized positions

Primary resolver-grade settlement cohort

Managed return

−22.190

total from $1 on each position · settlements + paper exits · after modelled fees

Realized positions

929

394 settled · 535 paper exits

Hit rate counts official settlements only, so early paper exits never inflate it; managed return and position count include those risk-managed exits. Published after the embargo — past results don't guarantee future outcomes; research only, not financial advice.

What counts here

Hit rate uses official settlements only — early paper exits never count toward it, so it describes part of the book rather than all of it. Managed return and the realized-position count do include those executable paper exits. Both returns are net of modelled trading fees — settlements model the entry fee, early exits model entry and exit. Proxy, archive, and legacy rows stay broken out below, never blended into the headline.

Settlement rules

Headline metrics include only trades whose market is in the resolver-aligned primary cohort (aligned + source_kind in {resolver_truth, manual_verified} + source_status in {parsed, manual_verified}). Trades sourced from station proxies, reanalysis archives, mixed/unknown legacy, or markets without any temperature_actuals coverage are listed in `diagnostic_cohorts` and `trades` with their truth_mode labelled — never blended into the headline. Paper exits are shadow-portfolio risk management events, not official YES/NO settlements, so they are excluded from the settlement headline and settlement accuracy metrics (they appear only in the separate managed record).

Full breakdown

Every return below is for one dollar staked on each position, so the figures stay comparable no matter the size. Both lines are net of modelled trading fees.

Realized positions

929

394 settled · 535 paper exits

929 of 929 positions priced

Realized return

−22.190

−0.024 average across 929 priced positions

From settlements

−146.092

official settlements · after modelled entry fee

From paper exits

+123.901

early exits · after modelled entry and exit fees

Hit rate covers the primary resolver-grade settlement cohort — 363 of 929 realized positions. Managed return covers the broader eligible settlement population (all embargoed official settlements, every cohort): 394 settlements, plus every paper exit.

Managed record combines official YES/NO settlements with executable paper exits — early risk-management exits taken at the market's executable price before settlement. Returns are flat-stake: the cumulative result of staking $1 on each realized position, so no position sizing is revealed. Both components model V2 taker fees: settlements model the entry fee only (resolution is not a trade), paper exits model entry plus exit fees (an early close is a taker round trip). These are modeled replays, not realized fees, and exclude slippage. Paper exits are not market settlements and never count toward the settlement hit rate. Settlement returns follow the same embargo as the headline; paper exits appear once recorded, as aggregate counts and return only — no per-position rows. A position with no expressible return is counted in the realized total and reported separately as return-unavailable; it is never summed as zero and never enters an average denominator.

How fees are modelled

Settlement returns model ONE V2 taker fee — the entry buy. A contract held to official resolution has no exit trade, so no exit fee applies.

Paper-exit returns model TWO V2 taker fees — the entry buy and the exit sell — because closing early is a taker round trip. Both legs use Polymarket's share- and price-dependent fee formula evaluated CONTINUOUSLY at the configured weather fee rate. Polymarket rounds the fee it actually charges to 5 decimal places per trade; this replay applies no trade-level venue rounding, so a modeled figure can differ from the venue's charge in the fifth decimal per leg.

Accounting v2. Settlements model an entry taker fee; paper exits model entry plus exit taker fees. Both are MODELED replays of the continuous analytical fee formula over recorded entry and exit prices at the published modeled_taker_fee_rate — they are not proof of the fees actually charged. Polymarket rounds the charged fee to 5 decimal places per trade and this replay applies no trade-level venue rounding (venue_rounding_applied is false), so figures are not venue-reconciled; they also model no slippage, partial fills, or price impact. Hit rate is settlement-only and is computed on the primary resolver-grade cohort; managed return covers the broader eligible settlement population plus paper exits, so the two figures have different denominators — see hit_rate_coverage. Positions whose return cannot be expressed are reported as a separate count and are excluded from every sum and average rather than treated as zero; when return_coverage_complete is false the published returns are priced-position subtotals, not totals. Under v1, paper exits carried no modeled fee, so rolling figures published before this version may be restated under the versioned convention.

Modelled fee rate: 5.00% per taker leg
Venue rounding: not applied — venue rounds to 5 decimals
Accounting: scorecard-accounting-v2

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 394

Each row's badge names how it settled: Verified = the market's official resolution source (the only rows that count in the headline); Provisional = settled another way, or not yet confirmed. Hover a badge for the exact method.

Sep 9TaipeiVerified
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.680
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.016
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Sep 8Tel AvivVerified
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on September 8?
Direction
NO @ 0.780
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.011
High temp
93.2°Fweather_underground
Sep 7Tel AvivVerified
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.500
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.025
High temp
89.6°Fweather_underground
Sep 7Tel AvivVerified
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on September 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.580
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.703
High temp
89.6°Fweather_underground
Sep 7TaipeiVerified
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.720
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.014
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Sep 7TaipeiVerified
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 7?
Direction
NO @ 0.580
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.703
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Sep 6Tel AvivVerified
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 6?
Direction
NO @ 0.590
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.020
High temp
89.6°Fweather_underground
Sep 5IstanbulProvisional
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 5?
Direction
NO @ 0.560
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.764
High temp
—
Sep 5TaipeiVerified
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 5?
Direction
NO @ 0.700
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.015
High temp
87.8°Fweather_underground
Sep 3Tel AvivVerified
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on September 3?
Direction
NO @ 0.790
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.255
High temp
89.6°Fweather_underground
Sep 3TaipeiVerified
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 3?
Direction
NO @ 0.760
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.012
High temp
86.0°Fweather_underground
Sep 2TaipeiVerified
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 2?
Direction
NO @ 0.775
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.011
High temp
91.4°Fweather_underground

Show all 394 resolved trades →

Sep 2IstanbulProvisional
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 2?
Direction
NO @ 0.510
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.024
High temp
—
Sep 2IstanbulProvisional
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 2?
Direction
NO @ 0.560
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.764
High temp
—

Other settlement sources

These rows are shown for transparency but are not counted in the headline record. They use settlement sources such as nearby stations, weather archives, legacy data, or rows that are not fully labelled yet.

Resolver Truth2 trades
Hit
0.0%
Avg / $1
−1.019
Cumulative
−2.038
Uncovered29 trades
Hit
48.3%
Avg / $1
−0.291
Cumulative
−8.449

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The record

Settlement hit rate

43.5%

158 of 363 settled · covers 39% of 929 realized positions

Primary resolver-grade settlement cohort

Managed return

−22.190

total from $1 on each position · settlements + paper exits · after modelled fees

Realized positions

929

394 settled · 535 paper exits

Full breakdown

Every return below is for one dollar staked on each position, so the figures stay comparable no matter the size. Both lines are net of modelled trading fees.

Realized positions

929

394 settled · 535 paper exits

929 of 929 positions priced

Realized return

−22.190

−0.024 average across 929 priced positions

From settlements

−146.092

official settlements · after modelled entry fee

From paper exits

+123.901

early exits · after modelled entry and exit fees

How fees are modelled

Settlement returns model ONE V2 taker fee — the entry buy. A contract held to official resolution has no exit trade, so no exit fee applies.

Modelled fee rate: 5.00% per taker leg
Venue rounding: not applied — venue rounds to 5 decimals
Accounting: scorecard-accounting-v2

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 394

Sep 9TaipeiVerified

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 9?

Direction: NO @ 0.680
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.016
High temp: 87.8°Fweather_underground

Sep 8Tel AvivVerified

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on September 8?

Direction: NO @ 0.780
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.011
High temp: 93.2°Fweather_underground

Sep 7Tel AvivVerified

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 7?

Direction: NO @ 0.500
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.025
High temp: 89.6°Fweather_underground

Sep 7Tel AvivVerified

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on September 7?

Direction: NO @ 0.580
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.703
High temp: 89.6°Fweather_underground

Sep 7TaipeiVerified

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 7?

Direction: NO @ 0.720
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.014
High temp: 87.8°Fweather_underground

Sep 7TaipeiVerified

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 7?

Direction: NO @ 0.580
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.703
High temp: 87.8°Fweather_underground

Sep 6Tel AvivVerified

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 6?

Direction: NO @ 0.590
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.020
High temp: 89.6°Fweather_underground

Sep 5IstanbulProvisional

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 5?

Direction: NO @ 0.560
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.764
High temp: —

Sep 5TaipeiVerified

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 5?

Direction: NO @ 0.700
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.015
High temp: 87.8°Fweather_underground

Sep 3Tel AvivVerified

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on September 3?

Direction: NO @ 0.790
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.255
High temp: 89.6°Fweather_underground

Sep 3TaipeiVerified

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 3?

Direction: NO @ 0.760
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.012
High temp: 86.0°Fweather_underground

Sep 2TaipeiVerified

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 2?

Direction: NO @ 0.775
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.011
High temp: 91.4°Fweather_underground

Show all 394 resolved trades →

Sep 2IstanbulProvisional
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 2?
Direction
NO @ 0.510
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.024
High temp
—
Sep 2IstanbulProvisional
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 2?
Direction
NO @ 0.560
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.764
High temp
—

Other settlement sources

Resolver Truth2 trades

Hit

0.0%

Avg / $1

−1.019

Cumulative

−2.038

Uncovered29 trades

Hit

48.3%

Avg / $1

−0.291

Cumulative

−8.449

The record

Full breakdown

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 394

Other settlement sources

Subscriber tier

The record

Full breakdown

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 394

Other settlement sources

Subscriber tier