Read this before you act on anything here.

Everything PolyWeather publishes — picks, fair-value estimates, edges, sizing suggestions, and reasoning — is for research and information purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or trading advice, and is not a recommendation to enter, hold, or exit any position. Nothing here is tailored to your circumstances.

Prediction and event markets involve a real risk of loss, up to and including the total loss of the amount you stake. Only commit funds you can afford to lose entirely.

The public scorecard reflects historical, settled outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee — and is not necessarily indicative of — future results. A favorable track record can be followed by losing periods.

Forecasts, models, market prices, and settlement-source data may be wrong, stale, delayed, incomplete, disputed, or unavailable at any time. Estimates carry uncertainty that is not always visible, and a model can be confidently mistaken.

You are solely responsible for determining whether you are legally eligible to use any prediction-market or trading platform in your jurisdiction, and for complying with that platform's rules and all applicable laws. PolyWeather does not assess your eligibility.

PolyWeather does not place orders, execute trades, broker transactions, or custody funds for anyone. It is a research surface only. Any position you take is your own decision, made and executed by you on a third-party platform.

Prediction-market platforms, weather-data providers, and settlement sources are independent third parties with their own terms, limitations, outages, and risks. PolyWeather does not control them and is not responsible for their conduct, accuracy, or availability.

For plain-language background on how the desk works, see the FAQ. This disclosure is risk transparency only — it is not legal advice and does not create any warranty or protection.