Public scorecard · settled record

How the desk actually did.

Resolved paper-portfolio picks, published after settlement and delayed by at least 24 hours so they can't be copy-traded. Live picks and open positions do not appear here.

Headline record

Resolved trades

20 wins

Hit rate

76.9%

direction matched settlement

Average return / $1

+0.106

average per $1 stake, after fees

Total return / $1 each

+2.761

sum using an equal $1 stake per trade

Past settled results are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Research only — not financial advice.

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 33

Badges name each row's settlement source: primary = the market's official source; resolver · proxy · reanalysis · verified = alternate settlement reads; legacy · uncovered = older or not-yet-labelled rows. Only primary rows count in the headline.

Jun 11Shanghaiprimary
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?
Direction
NO @ 0.600
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.647
High temp
90.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Tokyoprimary
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11?
Direction
NO @ 0.680
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.455
High temp
79.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Wellingtonprimary
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11?
Direction
NO @ 0.800
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.240
High temp
57.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Chicagoresolver
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.550
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.022
High temp
91.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Dallasprimary
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.676
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.463
High temp
93.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Seattleprimary
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.595
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.661
High temp
66.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Seattleprimary
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.770
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.012
High temp
66.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Atlantaprimary
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.790
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.255
High temp
88.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Dallasresolver
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.630
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.018
High temp
93.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Ankaraprimary
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.690
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.434
High temp
70.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 11Madridprimary
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.780
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.011
High temp
90.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Shanghairesolver
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.539
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.023
High temp
82.0°Fweather_underground

Show all 33 resolved trades →

Jun 10Wuhanprimary
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.800
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.240
High temp
86.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Seattleresolver
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.680
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.016
High temp
63.0°Fweather_underground

Other settlement sources

These rows are shown for transparency but are not counted in the headline record. They use settlement sources such as nearby stations, weather archives, legacy data, or rows that are not fully labelled yet.

Resolver Truth7 trades
Hit
28.6%
Avg / $1
−0.569
Cumulative
−3.985

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Resolved trades · latest 12 of 33

Jun 11Shanghaiprimary

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?

Direction: NO @ 0.600
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.647
High temp: 90.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Tokyoprimary

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11?

Direction: NO @ 0.680
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.455
High temp: 79.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Wellingtonprimary

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11?

Direction: NO @ 0.800
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.240
High temp: 57.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Chicagoresolver

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.550
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.022
High temp: 91.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Dallasprimary

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.676
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.463
High temp: 93.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Seattleprimary

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.595
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.661
High temp: 66.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Seattleprimary

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.770
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.012
High temp: 66.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Atlantaprimary

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.790
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.255
High temp: 88.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Dallasresolver

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.630
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.018
High temp: 93.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Ankaraprimary

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.690
Result: won · NO
Return / stake: +0.434
High temp: 70.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 11Madridprimary

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.780
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.011
High temp: 90.0°Fweather_underground

Jun 10Shanghairesolver

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?

Direction: NO @ 0.539
Result: lost · YES
Return / stake: −1.023
High temp: 82.0°Fweather_underground

Show all 33 resolved trades →

Jun 10Wuhanprimary
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10?
Direction
NO @ 0.800
Result
won · NO
Return / stake
+0.240
High temp
86.0°Fweather_underground
Jun 10Seattleresolver
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9?
Direction
NO @ 0.680
Result
lost · YES
Return / stake
−1.016
High temp
63.0°Fweather_underground

Headline record

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 33

Other settlement sources

Subscriber tier

Headline record

Resolved trades · latest 12 of 33

Other settlement sources

Subscriber tier