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Public scorecard · settled record
Resolved paper-portfolio picks, published after settlement and delayed by at least 24 hours so they can't be copy-traded. Live picks and open positions do not appear here.
Research status
Research validation is in progress. Current recommendations and subscriber research updates are paused while we review the captured evidence. No restart date has been set.
The bounded diagnostic pilot ended on September 26, 2026. Its results validate data capture, not forecasting accuracy or trading returns.
Historical paper results are presented separately when available. They are not live account holdings, executed trades, or evidence of a validated trading edge.
View historical paper resultsHit rate counts official settlements only, so early paper exits never inflate it; managed return and position count include those risk-managed exits. Published after the embargo — past results don't guarantee future outcomes; research only, not financial advice.
Every return below is for one dollar staked on each position, so the figures stay comparable no matter the size. Both lines are net of modelled trading fees.
Managed record combines official YES/NO settlements with executable paper exits — early risk-management exits taken at the market's executable price before settlement. Returns are flat-stake: the cumulative result of staking $1 on each realized position, so no position sizing is revealed. Both components model V2 taker fees: settlements model the entry fee only (resolution is not a trade), paper exits model entry plus exit fees (an early close is a taker round trip). These are modeled replays, not realized fees, and exclude slippage. Paper exits are not market settlements and never count toward the settlement hit rate. Settlement returns follow the same embargo as the headline; paper exits appear once recorded, as aggregate counts and return only — no per-position rows. A position with no expressible return is counted in the realized total and reported separately as return-unavailable; it is never summed as zero and never enters an average denominator.
Settlement returns model ONE V2 taker fee — the entry buy. A contract held to official resolution has no exit trade, so no exit fee applies.
Paper-exit returns model TWO V2 taker fees — the entry buy and the exit sell — because closing early is a taker round trip. Both legs use Polymarket's share- and price-dependent fee formula evaluated CONTINUOUSLY at the configured weather fee rate. Polymarket rounds the fee it actually charges to 5 decimal places per trade; this replay applies no trade-level venue rounding, so a modeled figure can differ from the venue's charge in the fifth decimal per leg.
Accounting v2. Settlements model an entry taker fee; paper exits model entry plus exit taker fees. Both are MODELED replays of the continuous analytical fee formula over recorded entry and exit prices at the published modeled_taker_fee_rate — they are not proof of the fees actually charged. Polymarket rounds the charged fee to 5 decimal places per trade and this replay applies no trade-level venue rounding (venue_rounding_applied is false), so figures are not venue-reconciled; they also model no slippage, partial fills, or price impact. Hit rate is settlement-only and is computed on the primary resolver-grade cohort; managed return covers the broader eligible settlement population plus paper exits, so the two figures have different denominators — see hit_rate_coverage. Positions whose return cannot be expressed are reported as a separate count and are excluded from every sum and average rather than treated as zero; when return_coverage_complete is false the published returns are priced-position subtotals, not totals. Under v1, paper exits carried no modeled fee, so rolling figures published before this version may be restated under the versioned convention.
No trades have cleared the embargo window yet. Resolved trades appear here once they've been settled by Polymarket and held back for the embargo period.